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New Yorkers will find out who will be their next mayor this election day, in a race that will determine who governs and defends the nation's largest city at a time when the former president has vowed to deploy military troops to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has matched two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against each other. The election has become an increasingly bitter showdown, laced with alleged racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading contenders that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has brought international attention. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the ex- Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the support of wealthy contributors and big business.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who beat Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has run on a platform of affordability and promised to halt rent increases for about 2 million city residents, has led Cuomo by double-digits across all surveys conducted in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's race to lose.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, Cuomo, who stepped down as the state's leader in recent years amid allegations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has criticized his opponent's goals as unrealistic, and in recent days laughed as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was strongly criticized as racist after posting an artificial intelligence video that featured a slew of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani releasing a convicts.

This represents a rather grubby end to an election that could be key to the direction that the party, struggling in its reaction to the former president's power moves, takes in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

If the progressive secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his bid will be compelled to address a message that has appealed to voters' anger at inequality, inflation and the establishment. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least a portion of the candidate's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has generated an enthusiasm within the party perhaps not witnessed since the Vermont senator ran for president in 2016.

Conversely, if Cuomo, who had been expected to sail to victory in the June primary, achieve a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could reinforce national Democrats' existing approach of considered, lackluster resistance – a strategy that has infuriated grassroots members. A New York defeat of the progressive's progressive, positive message could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to stick to the political center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the Democratic party is widely disliked across the country.

Campaign Energy

Voters in New York appear to favor the progressive agenda. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. The candidate's snappy videos on social media, his hopeful outlook for the city and his readiness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the metropolis has attracted an force of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them young or new participants.

Negative Tactics

Yet, Cuomo, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the stakes against him, the former governor has resorted to negative campaigning in the final days.

After spending months throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might stick, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on attacking Mamdani personally. He has labelled Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and appeared on conservative media for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo claimed New York “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It reached a nadir recently, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Political Landscape

The line of attack echoes much of what Trump, who has sent the national guard to Washington DC and threatened to do the same to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to the Republican in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to get Cuomo elected, as other powerful voices have pressured the Republican candidate to withdraw from the race.

Political Histories

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should never have come to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, launched his mayoral bid in October 2024, few had heard of him, and in truth, barely anyone even noticed.

Cuomo, by comparison, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The classic political insider, he had married a Kennedy and served in a Democratic presidency. He became New York governor in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his father, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – present a brighter outlook of the city's direction than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Still, the candidate has encountered difficulties in recent days, after footage emerged suggesting him suggesting the New York police department and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the clip, filmed at a DSA convention in 2023. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was criticizing joint training exercises between the city police and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, the candidate seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to his opponent's escalating attacks.

Mamdani responded to the independent's terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first ran for state assembly, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could express their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our beliefs.”

Addressing the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd